UBS bank analyst: Bitcoin could take 22 years to recover its all time high

18 Apr, 2019 | Updated: 18 Apr, 2019
by Will Heasman
Bitcoin
UBS bank analyst: Bitcoin could take 22 years to recover its all time high

According to an analyst at USB - a Switzerland based International bank – Bitcoin may take up to 22 years to regain its previous dizzying highs based on the historical performance of similar asset bubbles…

Despite the impressive rise from Bitcoin BTC and altcoins this year, UBS analyst Kevin Dennean believes that HODLers may be in for a longer wait for a recovery than they anticipated, citing a correlation with the Bitcoin bubble and previous bubbles.

Providing a chart of his finding Dennean, posits that the collapse of BTC is highly indexed with bubbles depicted by the Dow Jones back in 1929, the Nikkei in 1987 the Nasdaq in 2000 and oil in 2008:

"The argument here is that bitcoin has gone through its bubble phase and is ready to rise phoenix-like from the ashes just as other assets and indices did in the past," writes Dennean in a research note.

The analyst continues to state that crypto aficionados may have to wait as long as 22 years before an eventual recovery:

"We're struck by how long it took other asset bubbles to recover their peak levels (as long as 22 years for the Dow Jones Industrials) and how pedestrian the annualized returns from trough to the recovery often are," he writes.

Dennean also posits that "'not every bubble that bursts recovers the old highs," citing the Nikkei specifically. However, this isn’t the Nikkei, nor oil. This is Bitcoin, the asset that has seen a 10-year ROI of +519900% (you read that correctly).

BTC hasn’t just outperformed legacy stocks within the last decade, it's blown them out of the water, hence why a comparison with some of these bubbles is perhaps a little ill-advised.

However, Dennean may be onto something…  BTC ‘bubble’ has been compared to the dotcom bubble (NASDAQ bubble) in the past, something which more accurately depicts the rise and fall of Bitcoin.

Let’s take Amazon for the sake of comparison, which cited a massive loss from its all-time high of $109, in 1999 to just $6 in 2000, a -90% loss.

However, 17 years later in 2018 amazon stocks hit a new record all-time high of $2012, a massive growth of over 30000% since its low in 2001.

So while this precedent could mean bitcoin bulls are in for quite a wait, the pay off may be well worth it…

Key levels: if Bitcoin breaks $5300, this is the upside! Subscribe to the Chepicap YouTube Channel for more videos!

 

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