Bitcoin bull and bear scenarios: golden cross? or previous lows?

14 Apr, 2019
by Will Heasman
Bitcoin bull and bear scenarios: golden cross? or previous lows?

Bitcoin is currently continuing on its sideways adventure, staying defiantly above $5k after a dip from $5,400, and while some perceive this as spelling potential doom for the #1, others herald much more upside to come. So what are the bull and bear scenarios for Bitcoin?

For the most part, the previously bullish onslaught of analysts and traders of crypto media offering their various outlooks have silenced with only a handful left offering their bull and bear scenarios for Bitcoin (BTC).

One such analysis comes from Twitterati, Crypto Michael, who sees upcoming cross roads for the #1:

The analysis relays that the 0.618 Fibonacci level (around $5,320) is currently acting as resistance, something we’ve seen previously throughout the bear market, as depicted above.

The analysis also states that previous support is now acting as resistance providing a reason as to why BTC couldn’t break above the $5.4k level.

In the analysts’ estimation, a bull scenario would involve a gradual correction towards the 200-day moving average (MA) which would act as support around $4,700, before bouncing off that level and seeing more upside beyond $6,000 and then end of the bear market. great.

However, the bear scenario is quite different, with the analyst suggesting the move above the 200MA may actually act similarly to historic moves above this level which has proven to be a bear trap 3 times over since the start of the crypto winter.

The analyst goes on to state that if we lose 5k and drop below the 200MA, it’s likely we’ll see the 200MA become resistance once more along with a continuation of the bear market, with BTC potentially retesting previous lows. Not so great.

Another trader, known as Moon overlord, suggests that we could soon see a ‘golden cross’ for BTC.

A golden cross is an extremely bullish trading signal in which a short term MA crosses above a long term MA (in this case the 200 MA crossing the 50 MA). A golden cross could provide a bull market reinforced by high trading volumes.

The trader suggests we haven’t seen an instance of a golden cross since BTC was at $200 in October 2015 which led to a bull run and a peak of 480 by November of that year.

The 2015 market is something which the current market has been compared to time and time again, with many analysts drawing parallels between the two.

This sideways movement may well be another one of those parallels. This is according to analyst Josh Rager, who believes that - as long as the 2015 market comparison holds true - we’re about to enter a period of acclamation that may well last until July with bouncing between 3k and 6k until eventually continuing on to new heights.

This rather speculative supposition is based on the amount of time it took for accumulation to bottom back in 2015 – With Rager calculating 216 day – which, from the start of the $1000 candle which kicked off BTC’s latest rally, would signify July 19th, 2019 as an end to this sideways action.

So, will Bitcoin bounce back thanks to a golden cross? or will we sink to previous lows? Let us know what you think in the comments! 

Read more: As the weekend goes on, market fairly stable. Bitcoin hovering around $5100

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