Are we already in a cryptocurrency bull run right now?

29 Mar, 2019
by Will Heasman
Analysis
Are we already in a cryptocurrency bull run right now?

For some crypto speculators, we’re already in the midst of a bull market, and while not as explosive as the last few we’ve experienced, there's no denying that many signs point to a budding bull run… So is this a cryptocurrency bull run?

"If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck…" The aptly named, duck test: a form of abductive reasoning that implies that you can identify an unknown subject by its characteristics. But can we apply this to a potential bull market?

Right now, many altcoins are citing gains upwards of 20% year to date (YTD) gains, with some creeping into the low 100s, such as Augur (REP) Ontology (ONT) and Litecoin (LTC). Moreover, others such as Binance coin (BNB) are smashing the ball out of the park, looking to test 200% YTD gains.

So with this in mind, are we in a bull run?

According to a recent Tweet by Ran Neuner, Host of CNBC’s Crypto Trader, yes, yes we are:

However, as many subsequently relayed that fact that a CNBC contributor had announced the bull market meant the opposite was likely to come true…

Read more: CNBC: the perfect Bitcoin counter-indicator?

As crazy as it sounds, some (optimistic) speculators argue that Bitcoin has never truly experienced a bear market, and those people probably didn't experience the prolonged anguish of the slow decline from $20k ... But, their argument may have some merit.

For example, looking towards Bitcoin's yearly lows, we can grasp that consistent gains have been made year-in, year-out (as long as we ignore everything that occurred in-between…)

Furthermore, in the 10 years of its lifespan Bitcoin (BTC) has grown by almost 4.5 million percent (4444344%) ...

yes, you read that right. 

That’s based on Bitcoin’s starting price of $0.09 back in 2010, and its growth to the current price of circa $4000.

Needless to say, this growth more than outweighs historical gains from legacy stocks by a longshot. It also beats BTC’s closest rival, gold, which in the same 9-year period actually cites a loss of -7%.

(the price of gold since 150)

Similarly, the Dow Jones, doesn’t even come close to the returns of BTC, despite the fact that it has increased a commendable 127% in the same given period.

(Dow Jones price since 1950) 

So we MIGHT be in the midst of a bull run, but what does that actually look like?

Indicators of a bull run

During a bull run, it's not just price that increases, its sentiment as well. Social media positivity strikes an all time high during bullish phases, a period in which Reddit activity increases and the various daily threads of cryptocurrency subreddits are filled with users commenting every time BTC dares to move even a Satoshi…

And then of course, there’s the memes. Most of which, include this little guy:

 

Another sign that you're in bull mode is the incessant need to check Blockfolio, again, and again, and again…

This is a very real problem, a bull run has this unearthly magnetism that compels even the hardiest of HODLers, and the strongest of hands to obsessively check even the most minute changes in price.

And don’t even think about making a trade before bed, because that’s a one-way ticket to insomnia.

This was the norm back in the bull run of 2017-2018. The months and weeks leading up to the infamous BTC all-time-high (ATH) were a mixture of fatigue coupled with the buzz of accumulating wealth. This was a point at which daily gains across the top 100 were almost consistently above 5%, not to mention the 7-day chart... 

 

(Snapshot of coinmarketcap from December 31st, 2017)

Crypto portfolios during this time were showing ridiculous figures, with even the most humble of investors gaining thousands overnight. 

So, how do the gains of that last bull run stack up with our current situation?

Let’s use LTC as an example. Back in 2017, and leading up to its ATH, LTC cited a rally from $55 to $100 in a 30-day period from 29/10/17 – 29/11/17.

Now it was undeniable at this point, with this 81% gain, that some form of bull run was underway.

Below is the last 30 days of LTC price action, depicting a modest increase of 35%.

Looking at gains from more cryptocurrencies in the top 10 within the last month depicts an even more bullish story, with 6 out of 10 citing gains over 20%, and then some. 

So, Is this enough to say we’re experiencing some form of bull run?

Regardless of where you may stand, its fair to say that these recent gains aren’t insignificant; in fact, for some, they’re a sign of something much larger to come.

Recently, much of Crypto Twitter have been (literally) drawing parallels between the 2014 -2015 bear market, and the current… whatever market we’re currently in.

If this comparison rings true, and history rhymes, we could actually be in the midst of a very early bull run.

(Bitcoin bear market of 2014 – 2015)

(Current market)

A prominent crypto analyst, known as PlanB on Twitter, took this concept to the next level. The analyst mapped out BTC price action in relation to geometric and arithmetic mean dynamics, proving that each bull run, and subsequent crash that BTC has ever exhibited, corrolated with each other; due to this, the analyst postulates that a bull run might already be underway:

Interestingly, another piece of analysis from the famous Bitcoin bull and head of research at Fundstrat, Thomas Lee, hypothesizes that crypto bull runs are cyclical, and made up of three stages: a bull run, a bear market and … nothing, or as lee puts it ‘purgatory,’ up until the cycle repeats.

Based on this supposition, we can assume that, on average, Lee’s so called “purgatory’ period following a bear market lasts for 136 days. Starting from the BTC low of $3192, back in December 2018, a period of 136 days, would set the date for a bull run sometime next month; the 30th of April 2019 to be exact…   

Read more: How long do bull runs last?

So, it appears that we may indeed be in for a bull run, or at least very, very close to one, but who really knows?

Remember, If it looks like a bull run, acts like a bull run and feels like a bull run, then it probably is a bull run; until then keep your eyes on the charts…

Read more: When will the next cryptocurrency bull run occur? 8 expert opinions

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