"Bitcoin is 50% undervalued," says Brian Kelly

17 Feb, 2019 | Updated: 17 Feb, 2019
by Will Heasman
Bitcoin is 50% undervalued, says Brian Kelly

Brian Kelly, the eternal Bitcoin optimist, Founder & CEO of BKCM LLC - a digital currency investment firm - and regular on CNBC’s Fast Money, recently spoke to the Cointelegraph about crypto, the impact of a finical crisis, and the potential of a Bitcoin (BTC) ETF.

Speaking from the Crypto Finance Conference in Switzerland, Kelly started by relaying what he thought 2019 has in store for the crypto industry.

Optimistic as always Kelly asserted that 2019 would be a lot better than the previous year, adding that his main concern was price, focusing especially on the boom and bust cycles occurring within crypto:

‘If you look at the most recent two or so [cycles], we're following roughly the same path as we’ve had, which means we're somewhere closer to the end. We might have another dip lower” adding “it wouldn't surprise me if it [Bitcoin’s price] went to $1,500.” 

However, staying positive – and continuing in the vein of repetitive cycles - Kelly admitted that this was likely to be short-lived:

“I think we're coming to an end. Here's the thing, the sellers that we've seen recently are almost forced sellers. Some CEOs had to raise cash because they say they “can't hold it in crypto all the time.” These are signs of the end. I don't know if it [the end of the cycle] is here or it's a little bit lower, but those are the signs of the end.”

In Kelly’s estimation the focus this year will be on currency, “bitcoin, litecoin, some of those” because of the “geopolitical tension” around the world hinting towards an economic downturn.  

Read more: US national debt surpasses $22 trillion, fiat is doomed, Bitcoin is not!

“We're starting to see some global macro players use Bitcoin as an alternative to their gold position or as a way to hedge against fiat currency fluctuations and volatility.”

Rather than finding a stable currency to hedge their bets in, Keller believes investors are looking for a non-correlated, volatile asset such as BTC in order to not only ensure safety from a potential crisis but also possibly gain from.

“you want that volatility because you're trying to get good returns. You're trying to get something that's uncorrelated to everything else.”


Moving on to similar future predictions the conversation switched to the possibility of a bitcoin ETF in which Kelly reiterated his position by simply stating: “No shot.”


However, Kelly doesn’t believe its out of the realms of possibility, particularly In the future, adding that the SEC needs to become conformable with what its dealing with - in terms of BTC - before it makes any sudden moves.

Read more: Crypto Mom says SEC's "arcane rules" likely mean no Bitcoin ETF in 2019

Giving a timeframe Kelly said: “I think 2020 is a very good shot.”

BTC Undervalued?

Digressing to his chosen profession of analysis, Kelly asserts that if he is right “more than 50% of the time” he would consider that “good,” adding that he’s “generally right about 60 percent of the time”

Interestingly, tailing off from this, Kelly suggests that BTC is in fact 50% undervalued and that this is a good sign:

“sentiment in the market has pushed the price of Bitcoin well below what you would consider a fair value — or at least, what I would consider fair. And that's another sign that we're near a bottom.”

Let’s hope this prediction falls in Kelly’s 60% range… 

Read more: Brian Kelly says there is 'no shot' for a Bitcoin ETF approval in 2019

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