Is Bitcoin at $1 million really possible?

29 Jan, 2019 | Updated: 29 Jan, 2019
by Joeri Cant
Analysis
Is Bitcoin at $1 million really possible?

The $1 million per Bitcoin forecast looks like an extremely unreasonable price to be assigned to one single Bitcoin, especially in a time where Bitcoin is struggling. However, if you take a look at current and past data, you might see why so many cryptocurrency experts are seemingly convinced that it is actually possible for BTC to reach the ellusive million dollar mark. Is Bitcoin at $1 million really possible?

Before you go ahead and dismiss the outrageous amount of $1 million per Bitcoin, you have to remember that Bitcoin ever since its inception has continued to proof the largest of skeptics wrong.

In the beginning of 2011, it seemed impossible for Bitcoin to ever reach the value of even one single dollar. However, throughout the years Bitcoin has shown impressive resilience, having survived multiple painful bear markets. Every time Bitcoin came back with a vengeance reaching new all-time-highs.

Whether it was $100, $1000, $10,000 and eventually $19,783, each and one of those prices were considered to be an impossible milestone at some point in the past, and Bitcoin smashed them all anyway.

Read more: Is Bitcoin dead? 8 reasons why it is NOT

Many leading cryptocurrency experts believe Bitcoin is on its way to absolute world domination.

'Bitcoin at $1 million is still on'
One of those is the colorful cryptocurrency fanatic John McAfee who famously predicted that a single Bitcoin would be worth a massive $1,000,000 by the end of 2020.

The relentless ongoing crypto winter clearly didn't have any influence on McAfee's prediction. In September 2018, he reaffirmed his prediction that Bitcoin will hit $1 million by the end of 2020.

'I think it is impossible to be anything less than that. The bet is still on', McAfee repeated.

Read more: John McAfee repeats his prediction: 'by the end of 2020 BTC will be $1 million'

However, for Bitcoin to be on track with McAfee's prediction, BTC should be at around $32,500 around this time, at the start of 2019, and break the $100,000 barrier by September 2019. Bitcoin should be growing at a rate of 0.79% per day to get from $3,600 to $1,000,000.00 by the end of 2020, which doesn’t seem to be the most plausible way for the market to develop today.

On the other hand, Bitcoin has shown that kind of growth for most of its existence, so don't rule it out just yet.

Another leading crypto expert, Bobby Lee, brother of Litecoin creator Charlie Lee and co-founder of BTCC, China’s first bitcoin exchange, joins McAfee in his $1 million per Bitcoin prediction. However, Lee predicts Bitcoin will hit this number within 20 years.

'Bitcoin, I think will get to $1 million per bitcoin. It will go to 100,000 and then 200,000, 500,000', he said.

'Half a million, that’s going to be a milestone and then eventually it will cross $1 million for bitcoin.'

Read more: 9 Bitcoin price predictions for 2020 by crypto experts

Bitcoin scarcity
One of the more appealing reasons for Bitcoin to hit $1 million per coin, is that Bitcoin is scarce. There will only ever be 21 million Bitcoin in existence, with a vague approximation of the last Bitcoin block to be mined in 2140. Bitcoin is scarce and has utility as a superior way to store and exchange wealth.

Bitcoin's scarcity already had a huge impact on the demand for Bitcoin and this will continue as time goes on and supply continues to decrease. There is no doubt that digital scarcity will make Bitcoin exponentially more valuable over time.

Many claim that this set market cap makes Bitcoin already more desirable than other assets. More desirable than gold even, which could end up being replaced by Bitcoin entirely and if the number one cryptocurrency was to replace gold, one Bitcoin could be worth around $380,000, which is already more than 1/3 of the way to the $1 million mark.

Bitcoin has the potential to displace most assets, not just gold. There is jewelry, real estate, anything really, where people feel their wealth is securely stored in today, they will want to store some in Bitcoin tomorrow.

Read more: Will Bitcoin replace fiat money?

Bitcoin market cap of $16.5 trillion
The $1 million per Bitcoin builds on the notion that the total market cap of Bitcoin in the world would amount to $21 trillion. However, if we take in consideration the approximate 4.5 million Bitcoin that have been lost and are now unrecoverable for a variety of reasons, then we are closer to a maximum market cap of $16.5 trillion.

While $16.5 trillion is still a very large number, when you put it in perspective against the global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 130 trillion, a $1 million per Bitcoin market cap actually only represents 13% of the total global GDP.

Read more: New data reveals that 36% of circulating BTC supply is lost 

It is important to remember that the global GDP is produced almost entirely by less than 2 billion people. Imagine a future global GDP where the other 5.5 billion people suddenly become part of the world economy.

Bitcoin and blockchain technology will give these people the possibility to open a bank account and let all of humanity run their own businesses on a global market for the first time in human history. The so-called 'unbanked' will finally have the possibility to enter the global economy on a large scale.

Wherever you find yourself on this globe, you will be able to start up a business, selling self-made products on some kind of global selling platform and have no barriers to getting funds into your pockets and spend them however you wish.

Global GDP would grow accordingly. GDP could be measured in Quadrillions or Septillions of dollars within a few short years.

'ONLY $1 million?'
This fact alone, presents a much different perspective on the $1 million per Bitcoin argument.

Some might even say 'Only a million bucks? Bring it on!'

Asset management firm Lucid Investment Strategies seems to take the $1 million per Bitcoin prediction even a few steps further. They suggest that one BTC could one day be worth $10 million, if the world turns to crypto as a solution to the global debt crisis.

'If Bitcoin was chosen as a solution to the global debt problem, this could see it grow by around 3000% to be worth $10 million. It would have a total market cap of between $180 trillion and $210 trillion.'

Read more: Bitcoin to $10 million? Investment firm claims "it is possible"

Bitcoin is no longer considered to be just a fad or a hype, instead Bitcoin has proven itself, and this while it is still in the foundation-building stage of its development arc. It may take a decade to further develop, or even two or three, Bitcoin is here to stay and its value is not something to worry about over the long run.

With the price hovering at the $3,500 level at the time of writing, however, many remain skeptical of Bitcoins ability to find its way back to record highs let alone a future estimate of $1 million.

Zero or moon?

Just recently Jeff Schumacher, founder of BCG Digital Ventures has taken an incredibly bearish stance on the future of Bitcoin, stating that the number one cryptocurrency could tank all the way to zero.

'I do believe it will go to zero. I think it’s a great technology but I don’t believe it’s a currency. It’s not based on anything.'

There you have it. Is it possible for Bitcoin to hit that $1 million mark? Yes, it is. Is it likely? Who knows.

It is impossible to predict if Bitcoin will ever reach the $1 million mark, or any other astronomical price point, but wherever Bitcoin is headed, it is going to be an exciting ride getting there, and we are going to be along for the ride.

Read more: What could make Bitcoin go mainstream again?

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