Despite a myriad of positive movement and bullish sentiment, along with technicals which echoed the same, one analyst suggests that the bear market is far from over, due simply because of low transaction volume.
Willy Woo, an independent crypto researcher, and analyst has posited that the Bitcoin bear market is currently inescapable due to a lull in on chain volume:
Despite the technical setup that suggests bullishness is possible, there's not a lot on-chain volume to fuel a prolonged up move. What we saw in the last 7 weeks was a spike of on-chain volume driven by volatility, coins moving to exchanges to trade. pic.twitter.com/MVxlN8ttO1— Willy Woo (@woonomic) January 5, 2019
Woo is likely referencing the technicals exhibited from the GTI Vera Convergence Divergence indicator which suggested that BTC was in the midst of a buying streak.
Woo asserts that this streak provided a “false” signal to the end of the bear market adding that an increase of trade volume was a “side effect” of volatility rather than volume accumulation.
The analyst continues to state that volume has since subsided:
That volume has since subsided. Leaving the NVT chart on the high side of its oscillation around the main move downwards. The key thing here, in my interpretation, is it's on the high side of its band, so I think an up move is limited, bears will win the longer term trade. pic.twitter.com/j5ZYZVJFU8— Willy Woo (@woonomic) January 5, 2019
NVT refers to Network Value to Transactions (NVT) a ratio (developed by Woo personally) which measures the network value of a cryptocurrency in relation to its transaction activity, in theory, revealing whether said crypto is over or undervalued. In this instance, based on Woos analysis the probability of upward swing in price movement is unlikely.