Bitcoin: $11,000 retest before further decline

16 Jul, 2019
by Lourens Pepler
Price Analysis
Bitcoin: $11,000 retest before further decline

With a bit of upside yesterday we saw BTC making a push towards the resistance of $11000. Since it failed to break past said resistance, we will assume that BTC is not yet ready to be bullish again. Today we look at momentum to see if it shows any signs for a possible break in resistance and also look at possible support levels for a further dip. This is the BTC analysis for 16 June 2019:

Highlights:

- Daily RSI below 50

- BTC below 4hour momentum

- $11000 resistance

Kicking it off with a daily chart, we can see on RSI that momentum is still making lower lows and lower highs, confirming that we are in a downtrend. With RSI also now being below 50 could indicate that BTC is now ready to move back down below $10000 and onto the next support level near $9000. 

Resistance remains at $11000 for today, and for support we have the $10000 level to watch. If we get a breakdown below $10000, then it will be a confirmation that BTC is headed for our main target area for this larger decline around $8400.

BTC/USD chart provided by Tradingview

Moving over to the 4 hour chart, we can now get a better view of momentum and its direction. You can see that momentum is currently pressing against resistance, but that it also has a bit more room to grow, as it is not at 50 RSI yet. As we know, during a downtrend, 50 RSI acts as resistance. Assuming RSI can push a bit higher, means that price will follow.

Now looking at price, we can spot two downtrend lines, with BTC currently pressing against the sharper, more recent downtrend. With RSI still having room to grow, could mean that we can see BTC make a push towards the longer downtrend resistance line. An increase here would het BTC back to our resistance of $11000.

BTC/USD chart provided by Tradingview

Lastly, taking a look at the 15min chart, we can see that the overall momentum for these past two days has been up, with RSI forming an uptrend. With RSI currently sitting on support, could indicate that BTC is ready to make the push up towards resistance at $11000. 

BTC/USD chart provided by Tradingview

If BTC is able to break past $11000, then we should expect BTC to rise further and continue on its run, but a failure to break past $11000 would mean we will see BTC fall back down below $10000.

Do you think BTC is now heading back down below $10k, or was the bounce off of $10k all we needed to get us back to the uptrend? Let us know what you think in the comments below!

Disclaimer: Keep in mind this not investment or trading advice, just the opinion of our analysts. As always, do your own research, make your own decisions.

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