New model: Bitcoin to $100k by 2020, $1m by 2024 and $10m by 2028

15 Jul, 2019 | Updated: 15 Jul, 2019
by Will Heasman
Price Analysis
New model: Bitcoin to $100k by 2020, $1m by 2024 and $10m by 2028

A prominent analyst known for their data-centric Bitcoin forecasts has updated their prediction model, suggesting that Bitcoin could hit $100,000 in 2020, $1 million in 2024 and $10 million by 2028…

The analyst in question has been highlighted by Chepicap before, due to their impressive and extensive analysis of Bitcoin post-2020 halving.

The previous analysis used a Stock-to-flow (SF) model – the relationship between an asset’s value and its supply - to place Bitcoin at a price of $55k after the block reward halving in May 2020.

Essentially, the SF ratio forms a measure of an asset’s scarcity based on its supply and inflation. This is commonly used within commodities such as gold and silver to measure their value.

Now, an updated model utilizing data collated from historical price action in October gives an even more bullish yield than previously suspected; with the analyst relaying that the previous model may have had anomalies within it which provided an erroneous prediction.

Using the new data, the SF model fits Bitcoin with 99.5% accuracy -- or as the analyst puts it, ‘R2’ which denotes how well a line fits data observations.

The reinvigorated prediction places Bitcoin at a price of roughly $100k by 2020, $1 million by 2024 and $10 million by 2028…

Fantasy or reality?

One skeptical investor noted that $100k in such a short timeframe seemed “crazy”:

This was challenged by another, who argued that $100k was only 5x away and that Bitcoin had already more than surpassed that with a 16x run in the 2017 rally:

So, while the promise of Bitcoin fetching the princely sum of $10 million may be every Bitcoiners a wet dream, is it really possible?

In order to reach $100k Bitcoin would need to grow 870% from today’s price ($10.3k)

Now, let's face it, in the world of Bitcoin, a percentage increase of 870% isn’t actually as daunting as it first appears. Time and time again Bitcoin manages to set a new precedent when it comes to major price hikes. At its peak, Bitcoin's return on investment within 2017 was 1800%, with price going roughly from $1000 at the start of the year to $19,000 in mid-December.

Moreover, Bitcoin in the entirety of its price history Bitcoin has increased roughly 18,000,000% (18 million percent).  

To reach a price point of $10 million, BTC would need to increase approximately 19,000,000% (97 thousand percent) from today’s price… in comparison to its past performance, that doesn’t seem like too much of a stretch.

What do you think? Can Bitcoin carve a path to $10 million within 10 years? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!

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