One more decline ahead for Altcoins: A 2015 comparison

14 Jul, 2019
by Lourens Pepler
Price Analysis
One more decline ahead for Altcoins: A 2015 comparison

While many traders believe altcoins are at their cycle lows, there are some signs that one more decline lies ahead for Altcoins. We today look at the total Altcoin market cap from 2015 to see if we spot any similarities to the current total Altcoin market cap and to see if it can tell us anything about what lies ahead.

**TMC = Total (Altcoin) Market Cap

If we start off with today's TMC and looking at its value, we are able to draw an uptrend that has formed over the past 200 days. We also notice that TMC is almost at the support line from our uptrend.

Now looking at RSI, we can see that momentum did not hold support at 50 RSI, indicating that this uptrend has broken support and that we should expect a further decrease in TMC value.

Altcoin TMC provided by Tradingview

For us to now see which levels the value might fall to, we move back to 2015 TMC to see if we spot any similarities in the chart. We start looking for similarities after Jan 2015, since that was the low of the altcoin bear market. 

Positioning the chart so that it mirrors today's structure, we are able to spot similarities around May when an uptrend also formed. Starting off by looking at RSI, we can see that momentum also fell below 50 when the TMC value was at support.

Altcoin TMC provided by Tradingview

If we now move the chart a bit forward in time, we can see that the entire uptrend has retraced after it broke support. Although the value fell back to near its cycle low, we can see that momentum did not fall further and started to trend up. What followed was the start of the Altcoin bull market.

Altcoin TMC provided by Tradingview

Moving back to today’s TMC and now mirroring 2015’s structure, lays out what we can possibly expect for Altcoin in the next 2 months. In 2015 we saw the TMC fall 60% from the uptrend high, so expecting the same for this cycle we will see the TMC fall to a level of 550

Altcoin TMC provided by Tradingview

According to the analysis, we will now see the Altcoin market start to lose value as it makes it way towards a 60% decline. Do you think the past will be repeated and we will see Altcoins bleed one more time, or is this time different and we will see the Altcoin TMC hold support at this uptrend line? Let us know what you think in the comments below!

Disclaimer: Keep in mind this not investment or trading advice, just the opinion of our analysts. As always, do your own research, make your own decisions.

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