BTC momentum falling: Back to $10,000?

12 Jul, 2019
by Lourens Pepler
Price Analysis
BTC momentum falling: Back to $10,000?

After bouncing off of $11,000 support, bitcoin is back to moving upwards. With price still being below resistance of $12,000, we today look at momentum on the higher time frame to see what direction BTC is headed. This is the BTC analysis for 12 July 2019.

Highlights:

- $11,000 tested

- Momentum falling

- $12,000 resistance for today

- $10,000 possible

Starting with a 15min chart and looking at momentum on RSI, we can see that it is currently outside of the downtrend and is already near 70, indicating this move outside of the trend won't hold, since strong buying power could not get it above the previous local high of $11,800.

We can however still see BTC reach past the previous local high to make a push towards resistance at $12,000. With RSI already starting to make lower highs, tell us that momentum is shifting to the downside, and that we should see any further increases in price as overextended.

BTC/USD chart provided by Tradingview

Moving over to a 4 hour chart, we can see that momentum is back below the downtrend and also below 50, both indicating bearish action. We also notice that RSI is near the downtrend line, with a little bit of room still to grow. The small push up on the smaller time frame would help the 4hour reach the resistance line. Another thing to notice is that RSI will not only find resistance at the downtrend line, but also at 50 RSI. AS we know during a downtrend, 50 RSI acts as resistance for momentum. 

BTC/USD chart provided by Tradingview

Once resistance is hit, we will see BTC then fall back to support at $11,000, which will not be a good sign as we believe another retest of $11,000 will not hold. A break below $11,000 would mean a further decline lies ahead for BTC. According to the downtrend line of ours, we could expect BTC to fall back to a level of $10,000. This price point has not seen much action this past few weeks, plus the fact that it is a psychological price point, leads us to believe that BTC will fall to $10k for a retest of support.

BTC/USD chart provided by Tradingview

Lastly, taking a look at the daily momentum, we can see that RSI has made a lower low yesterday. This is telling us that selling pressure has increased compared to the days before it. With today's RSI not looking too strong hovering below 55, could indicate that we won't see much of an increase today, adding some confluence with our smaller time frame analysis. 

BTC/USD chart provided by Tradingview

Do you agree that BTC will see a further decline in price, or has it found support at $11,000 and we will see BTC continue its bull run? Let us know what you think in the comments below!

Disclaimer: Keep in mind this not investment or trading advice, just the opinion of our analysts. As always, do your own research, make your own decisions.

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