Ethereum (ETH) below trend: $240 possible

11 Jul, 2019
by Lourens Pepler
Price Analysis
Ethereum (ETH) below trend: $240 possible

After a sharp decrease in price yesterday, ETH is now below its uptrend. Could this be the start of a downtrend taking ETH to $240, or is this decline overextended from the uptrend and we will see it rise back above it? This is the ETH analysis for 11 July 2019.


- ETH below uptrend.

- RSI trending down

- $273 resistance level

- $240 possible

Starting with a 4-hour chart, we can see that ETH is now below the uptrend on price, and back below the trend on RSI, after a bull trap formed yesterday. A bull trap forms when momentum and price moves outside of a clear downtrend, leading people to think a breakout has happened, but since the clear trend is downwards, price soon makes it way back to trend causing all the breakout buyers to close their positions, which leads to more downside.

ETH/USD chart provided by Tradingview

With the general trend still being down, could mean that we will see a further decline in ETH in the coming days, as RSI is now mostly below 50. When RSI is mostly below 50, it tells us that bears are in control, since the selling pressure is more than buying pressure.

Looking at price, we are able to draw a downward channel for this decline, which helps us see what possible price levels we could expect support and resistance from. We can see that the bottom of the channel has already been tested once as support at $260.

Price is currently finding at resistance here at $273, which is the middle of the downwards channel. This is also a strong resistance level from a few weeks ago, when ETH tried to break past it for a whole month. We can see that $273 provided support twice after it broke past it, but failed to hold on the 3rd retest that happened yesterday, thus turning $273 back into strong resistance.

ETH/USD chart provided by Tradingview

If ETH fails to break past $273 then it is likely that we will see a decline towards $250. With momentum showing weakness and no clear signs of reversing, could mean that the decline is more likely than a rise past $273.

Over at the daily chart, we spot some more bearish signs on RSI, since it is now making lower highs and lower lows. We can also see that RSI is now below 50 again, which could indicate that selling pressure is now more than buying pressure. 

Last week we talked about how we expect BTC to reach below 40 on RSI on a daily, before it can continue onwards to new highs. Since ETH and BTC usually moves together, we will assume the same must happen with ETH before it can move onto new highs. 

With RSI falling steeply currently, could mean that we will see is reach below 40 in the coming days, which will be a signal that the bottom has been reached. A further decline in RSI would cause a further dip in price which could take ETh to a price level of $240.

ETH/USD chart provided by Tradingview

Do you think we will now see ETH make its way towards $240, or will this dip not last long and we will see price recover fast? Let us know what you think in the comments below!

Disclaimer: Keep in mind this not investment or trading advice, just the opinion of our analysts. As always, do your own research, make your own decisions.

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