40% decrease possible during BTC decline: $8400 level to watch

27 Jun, 2019
by Lourens Pepler
Price Analysis
40% decrease possible during BTC decline: $8400 level to watch

Bitcoin seems to have reached its high for this run up near $13800, and now we need to look at where BTC can retrace to during this decline. During similar price action in previous cycles, Bitcoin retraced roughly 40% after an increase like we've seen yesterday, which in this case could bring BTC back to $8400. This is the BTC price  analysis for 27 June 2019.


- We look at 2015 price action

- Possible 40%, already halfway done

- Support at previous $8400 breakout 

Starting off with a daily chart and looking at price, we can see that the main target of $13200 has been hit. Momentum was strong and liquidations were plenty full during this push, which allowed the price to move past our target and reach a high of $13800. Bitcoin is currently resting on minor support at the $11400 level.

BTC/USD chart provided by Tradingview

Before we start looking at possible support levels for this decline, we first take a step back and look at the previous cycle to see if we can spot any similarities. Going back to 2015 price action, and positioning the chart so that it mirrors today's price action, we can already see the similarities.

We won't talk about past price action too much, but what's important to notice is the fact that after BTC reached its peak on momentum and price, it was followed by a 40% decrease in price, taking it back to the previous breakout level.

BTC/USD chart provided by Tradingview

Moving back to today's chart and plotting a 40% decrease on the chart, allows us to see the possible support level for this dip. Just like in the 2015 example, a 40% decrease would bring Bitcoin back to its previous breakout level near $8400.

BTC/USD chart provided by Tradingview

If we now move over to a 4 hour chart to see what momentum is telling us on the RSI, we are able to spot a downtrend that has taken shape this past few weeks. We can see that this last push up in price caused momentum to leave the trend, and that is it is now making its way back towards it. Assuming our downtrend for RSI is right, could indicate that Bitcoin will be generally trending down in the coming days as momentum keeps falling.

BTC/USD chart provided by Tradingview

Since our analysis on both price and momentum is indicating that BTC want to move down, leads us to believe BTC is making its way towards $8400. BTC has already seen a 20% decrease since yesterday, getting us halfway to our support level already.

BTC/USD chart provided by Tradingview

Do you agree that Bitcoin is now headed down for a correction to $8400, or can BTC hold support above $10k and push us onto $20k soon? Let us know what you think in the comments below!

Disclaimer: Keep in mind this not investment or trading advice, just the opinion of our analysts. As always, do your own research, make your own decisions.

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