Bitcoin on its way to $13200: Momentum turning back to uptrend

26 Jun, 2019 | Updated: 26 Jun, 2019
by Lourens Pepler
Price Analysis
Bitcoin on its way to $13200: Momentum turning back to uptrend

After an explosive morning Bitcoin is now sitting at the $12600 level. With momentum still generally trending up, could indicate that Bitcoin has more in store for us. While Bitcoin looks prime to rise to around $13200, we still remain cautious and take a look at the bearish scenario as well. This is the BTC analysis for 26 June 2019.

Highlights:

- $12600 target hit

- RSI still riding the trend, currently below it

- Main daily fib almost reached

- Divergence to start forming

Starting today off with a smaller time frame, the 15 min chart, we can see that Bitcoin is still mainly riding the uptrend on RSI. Currently sitting below the trend, could indicate that a good buying opportunity is forming. As mentioned in yesterday's analysis, it's always best to wait for momentum to move below the trend, and wait for RSI to make a higher low.

The reason for this is that when RSI keeps making new lows, it's telling us that price will continue to fall since the number of sellers are increasing. As soon as RSI makes a higher low - below the momentum uptrend - it tells us that the selling pressure has died down and that there are now more buyers than sellers. When this happens below the trend, it's a signal to buy. Preferably, in an uptrend, you also want this turn in momentum to occur below 50 on RSI.

Looking at RSI we are able to spot 4 previous buying opportunities that provided great entries for the run-up. Since RSI is once again making a higher low below the trend, it indicates that BTC is ready to move back up.

BTC/USD chart provided by Tradingview

We have also not yet seen any divergence, which indicates that BTC still has to make a new high on price, but a lower high on RSI. This will be the signal that BTC has peaked out for now and that a reversal is near.

Looking back to previous price action, on 22 June we are able to spot a similar structure that formed to today. You can see that after price pushed up sharply, it was followed by one more push to the topside making a new high on price, but a lower high on RSI, creating divergence. What followed was an 8% decrease.

Plotting some circles over the previous structure and copying it over to today's structure, lays out the possible target for this increase to come. Assuming the same action for today could get BTC to a price of $13200 by the end of the day.

BTC/USD chart provided by Tradingview

Moving over to the Daily chart and plotting the Fib tool back on the chart, we can see that BTC is now near the final expansion level of 423%. This is also almost the exact price of our target for the final push towards $13200, adding some confluence in our analysis.

BTC/USD chart provided by Tradingview

Since we are at yearly highs, it is important that we look at the bearish scenario as well. If we move back to the 15 min chart and plotting a simple trend line on yesterday's momentum highs, we notice that a downtrend has taken shape and that momentum is currently back below it.

As we know, when momentum pushes outside of a trend, it is very likely to return to it as soon as RSI makes a lower high, as in this case. Currently back below the trend, could indicate that we have seen the high for BTC. Some possible support levels for a dip would be first around $12200, and below that, we have $11900. 

BTC/USD chart provided by Tradingview

Do you agree that BTC can push onto $13200 or was $13000 the high, and we will see BTC start retracing while it gives altcoins a chance to recover from the bloodbath? Let us know what you think in the comments below!

Disclaimer: Keep in mind this not investment or trading advice, just the opinion of our analysts. As always, do your own research, make your own decisions.

Follow Chepicap now on Twitter, YouTubeTelegram and Facebook!

Bitcoin over $12K! 5 Reasons WHY! Subscribe to the Chepicap YouTube Channel for more videos!

Poll

Do you think Bitcoin is due for a correction?

(103 votes)

Add a comment

Check out the latest news

You will be logged out and redirected to the homepage